KATHMANDU: Chinese automakers are rapidly expanding overseas, reducing the long-standing dominance of Toyota and Volkswagen in the global car market. Analysts say the shift now appears structural rather than temporary.
According to UBS, the Swiss investment bank, Chinese brands could control around one-third of the global auto market within five years if current growth continues. Overseas markets now account for about 20 percent of sales for Chinese carmakers and up to 50 percent of profits for some brands.
China’s strength lies in electric vehicles, cost control, and vertically integrated supply chains. Despite slower EV adoption in Europe and trade barriers, UBS says Chinese manufacturers are catching up after a slower-than-expected 2024.
The South China Morning Post reports that long-term investments in EVs and supply chains have given Chinese brands a strong cost and speed advantage. Analysts note that rapid learning and fast execution have helped them scale globally.
UBS forecasts that the combined market share of Volkswagen and Toyota could fall from 81 percent to 58 percent by 2030. Over the same period, Tesla’s global share could rise from about 2 percent to 8 percent.
Chinese automakers are also expanding through local production. Brands such as BYD, SAIC, Great Wall, Chery, and GAC already operate plants in Thailand and Brazil, while BYD is developing a major facility in Hungary for Europe.
India is also targeting growth, with Tata and Mahindra expanding locally. However, analysts say China retains a clear edge due to its dominance in the EV supply chain, which many countries, including India, still rely on.
Industry experts expect the global EV market to move towards consolidation, with fewer but larger players shaping the next phase of the automotive industry.
