KATHMANDU: The recent Iran conflict has already impacted the global automotive industry, even as tensions begin to ease. Analysts say even a quick end to the war will not prevent a significant sales shortfall in 2027.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was heavily disrupted during the conflict. Many shipping companies avoided the route, causing delays and higher logistics costs.
According to S&P Global Mobility, global car sales could fall by 800,000 to 900,000 units in 2026. The impact will extend into 2027, with around 500,000 additional units expected to be lost.
Total potential losses could exceed 1.4 million vehicles.
Gulf markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar faced supply shortages. This led to longer delivery times and higher vehicle prices.
Production in Asia-Pacific may also slow. Countries including Japan, South Korea, and China are expected to face pressure from higher oil prices and supply disruptions.
Industry recovery will take time. Normal shipping and supply conditions are likely only by the second half of 2026.
