KATHMANDU: Only 15 out of the 129 brands currently selling electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids in China are expected to remain financially viable by 2030, according to a recent report by global consultancy AlixPartners.
The report forecasts that these 15 brands will capture around 75% of China’s EV and plug-in hybrid market by the end of the decade, with each brand expected to sell an average of 1.02 million vehicles annually. The firm, however, did not disclose the names of the brands.
Despite the anticipated market consolidation, AlixPartners noted that the process will likely be slower in China compared to other markets. Stephen Dyer, head of the firm’s automotive practice in Asia, said local governments may continue to support unprofitable brands due to their role in regional employment, supply chains, and local economies.
“China is one of the most competitive new energy vehicle (NEV) markets globally, marked by aggressive price wars, rapid innovation, and a steady influx of new players,” Dyer said. “While this has driven advancements in technology and cost efficiency, it has also made profitability difficult for many.”
China, the world’s largest automotive market, is currently dealing with pricing pressure and excess production capacity. These factors have weighed heavily on profit margins across the industry. Besides BYD and Li Auto, no other publicly listed Chinese EV manufacturer has reported a full year of profitability.
Although Chinese regulators have urged automakers to stop the ongoing price war, Dyer believes it will continue through indirect means such as insurance incentives and zero-interest financing rather than open discounts.
The report also highlighted that the average capacity utilization at Chinese car factories dropped to 50% last year, the lowest in a decade further impacting the sector’s financial health.
