KATHMANDU: Ouyang Minggao has projected that pure electric vehicles will dominate around 90% of China’s automotive market by 2040. He shared this outlook at the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development Forum held in Beijing.
The Tsinghua University professor stated that plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs are already on a declining path. He said pure electric vehicles offer the highest efficiency, nearly twice that of hydrogen vehicles and four times that of synthetic fuel engines.
According to his projection, new energy passenger vehicles will cross 70% market share by 2030. This will increase to over 80% by 2035 and remain at that level by 2040. Within this, pure EVs will gradually dominate, reaching a 9:1 ratio compared to plug-in hybrids by 2040.
Ouyang also advised caution on solid-state batteries. He said the technology still faces technical challenges and may reach around 300 Wh/kg energy density by 2030. He warned companies not to rush commercialization.
On battery safety, he highlighted key developments. These include stricter regulations, improved lithium iron phosphate battery adoption, and upcoming safety standards focused on preventing fire and explosion.
He added that China’s EV industry is evolving through new business models. These include vertical integration, smart mobility ecosystems, and reforms in state-owned companies.
For commercial vehicles, he expects new energy trucks to cross 50% market share by 2030 and exceed 70% by 2040.
